Jotun has reported an estimated 11.8 million tonnes of avoided CO2 emissions in 2025 for vessels coated with its marine products, up from 11.1 million tonnes in 2024. The updated figure has been verified through an independent technical evaluation conducted by DNV, which assessed the avoided emissions estimate for the vessels included in the evaluation based on documented performance inputs rather than a purely internal calculation.

 

Method Used to Translate Hull Performance into Emissions

 

The estimate is built around average speed loss, a metric that reflects how hull condition affects resistance and therefore fuel consumption over time. In the evaluation, the vessels’ observed average speed loss is compared against an industry benchmark referenced in ISO 19030, which provides a standardized approach to measuring and reporting changes in ship performance. The logic is that lower speed loss implies better hull efficiency, which in turn reduces fuel burn and associated emissions for comparable operating profiles.

 

Data Inputs, Modelling, and Uncertainty Range

 

DNV’s evaluation uses the DNV MASTERv2 emission prediction model combined with AIS data and Jotun-provided data on average speed loss across a five-year drydocking cycle. In line with ISO 19030 principles, the assessment measures average speed loss over the final four years within that five-year interval. Jotun states the 2025 figure is verified on the same premises as the 2024 estimate and includes an uncertainty band of plus 2.5 million tonnes and minus 2.0 million tonnes of CO2, reflecting the reality that avoided emissions are inferred from operational data and models rather than directly measured.

 

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Commercial Implications for Operators

 

Jotun also links the verified performance level to an estimated fuel cost saving of around US$2 billion, positioning hull performance as a cost and efficiency lever alongside its emissions relevance. The company adds an equivalence comparison suggesting 11.8 million tonnes of CO2 is similar to the annual emissions of roughly 2.5 million gasoline-powered cars using a standard conversion approach, aiming to communicate scale beyond technical audiences.

 

Why Third Party Verification Matters

 

For shipping decarbonisation, hull performance is one of the more immediately deployable efficiency measures because it can be applied across existing fleets without waiting for new fuels or major retrofits. DNV’s verification provides a documented basis for discussions between coating suppliers, shipowners, and charterers about the potential emissions effect associated with controlling speed loss, while the material test will be whether these efficiency gains remain consistent across routes, seasons, and operating conditions as fleets scale adoption.