Dry bulk market attention is starting to move away from immediate war-related disruption and toward fleet growth and demand fundamentals, after signs that the sector’s underlying trade flows have not been severely hit despite escalating Middle East tensions. Howe Robinson Partners said around 280 bulk carriers are currently trapped inside the Arabian Gulf with about 100 more anchored outside, a queue that represents a small but measurable share of key segments. The brokerage also noted the Arabian Gulf accounted for about 4.3 percent of global seaborne dry bulk trade in 2025, suggesting that while congestion is operationally material for affected owners, the region’s share is not large enough on its own to redefine global dry bulk demand.

 

Why the Strait of Hormuz Still Matters for Specific Cargoes

 

The Arabian Gulf remains strategically important for certain bulk commodities that rely on Hormuz as the main gateway. Howe Robinson highlighted the region’s role in fertiliser-related products and inputs and pointed to its outsized shares of limestone and sulphur shipments, alongside smaller but still relevant positions in grain imports and iron ore flows. The implication is that disruption risk is concentrated in niche cargo lanes that can create temporary rate effects and displacement, even if the overall dry bulk system remains broadly intact.

 

Capesize Ordering Accelerates and Deliveries Step Up

 

The more structural story is newbuilding momentum, particularly in the Capesize segment, which Howe Robinson said has supported increased ordering activity in recent months. The brokerage’s data indicates the Capesize orderbook expanded by 24 percent in deadweight terms between January and March 2026. Delivery projections rise from 44 ships in 2026 to 79 in 2027 and 82 in 2028, pointing to a sharp increase in forward supply that will matter for earnings cycles and asset values if demand does not keep pace.

 

A Fleet Growth Cycle Emerges as Demolition Stays Quiet

 

Across the whole sector, the dry bulk orderbook is reported at 1,618 vessels totaling 142.2 million dwt, the highest level in a decade and equivalent to about 13.3 percent of the active fleet. At the same time, recycling activity remains limited even though a significant volume of tonnage is over 20 years old, because owners are choosing to keep older vessels trading or sell them on rather than scrap them. This dynamic increases the likelihood that fleet growth will remain firm in the near term, especially if freight rates stay supportive enough to justify continued operation of aging ships.

 

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Segment Growth Profile Points to Faster Expansion in Mid Sizes

 

Howe Robinson expects the global dry bulk fleet to grow by about 3.5 percent in 2026, which would be the fastest annual expansion since 2020. The strongest percentage growth is projected in Supramax and Ultramax, followed by Panamax and Kamsarmax, with Handysize and the largest VLOC and Capesize segments growing more slowly. This matters because the balance of fleet growth shapes where competition for cargo is most intense and where charterers may have more pricing power.

 

China’s Demand Share Softens but Imports Still Drive the Outlook

 

On demand, the brokerage expects dry bulk trade growth of about 1.6 percent in 2026, roughly in line with last year but below the stronger growth rate seen in 2024. Commodity forecasts show modest iron ore growth, a decline in coal shipments that is less severe than last year’s drop, and a rebound in grain volumes alongside continued strength in bauxite. The demand debate is increasingly framed around China’s role in tonne-mile growth, with the brokerage noting China’s contribution has weakened while India and Southeast Asia become more important. Even so, it expects some recovery in 2026, supported by higher iron ore flows from Brazil and Guinea and continued bauxite exports to China.

 

Near Term Balance Looks Tightest in Capesize

 

Capesize demand is expected to grow at a pace slightly above projected fleet growth this year, supported mainly by iron ore flows and secondarily by bauxite and coal. Howe Robinson expects the dry bulk market to peak in the second quarter of 2026 based on current fundamentals, implying that the near term could remain constructive even as the industry faces a more challenging supply backdrop as the larger wave of deliveries arrives in 2027 and 2028.