Gas Carriers Resume Hormuz Transits as US-Iran Peace Deal Triggers VLGC Wave but Uncertainty Persists
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LPG and LNG carriers are resuming movement through the Strait of Hormuz following news of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, with intelligence provider Anfil Gas tracking nearly a dozen very large gas carriers departing the area and releasing almost half a million tonnes of LPG in a wave triggered by the lifting of blockades at the end of last week. However, the situation remains fluid, with reports of a renewed Hormuz closure expected to weigh on sentiment and a high-casualty explosion at Qatar's Barzan gas plant in Ras Laffan Industrial City adding fresh uncertainty to the recovery trajectory of Gulf LNG production.
VLGC Departures and LPG Cargo Flows
The lifting of blockades triggered a concentrated wave of departures by Iranian-traded VLGCs, with market participants estimating that the majority of the released LPG cargoes will be discharged in China. Other VLGCs linked to Iranian trade have since entered the Middle East Gulf for loading, indicating that operators are moving to rebuild cargo positions where the security environment permits. Among the more notable individual cases, a 2018-built VLGC that had loaded at Kuwait's Mina Al Ahmadi in early March was able to depart the Gulf after being effectively stranded in the region for more than 100 days. The extended detention of this vessel illustrates the severity of the disruption that the Hormuz blockade imposed on individual assets and the commercial costs borne by owners caught in the Gulf when the situation escalated. Regional exporters including those operating from Ruwais, Mina Al Ahmadi, and Ras Laffan terminals have indicated willingness to continue moving cargoes through ship-to-ship operations at the Sohar and Vadinar anchorages in India as an alternative pathway where direct Hormuz transit remains uncertain.
LNG Carrier Return to Qatar and Production Recovery Expectations
The LNG carrier market is showing parallel signs of normalisation, with an increasing number of QatarEnergy-controlled vessels ballasting back to Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz. ICIS senior LNG analyst Alex Froley has identified four additional Qatari-linked LNG carriers, comprising the 2009-built Al Sadd, Mekaines, and Mesaimeer alongside the 2025-built Wadi al Sail, as having crossed westbound through the strait. These arrivals follow the return of Al Hamla, the first empty Qatari LNG carrier to return to Ras Laffan since the conflict began in late February, subsequently joined by Al Areesh and Al Khuwair. The total number of empty Qatari LNG carriers returning westbound for new cargoes has now risen to seven. On the outbound side, Fearnley LNG has observed 16 laden LNG carrier transits through Hormuz since the start of the conflict, with cargoes heading to Pakistan, China, India, and Japan, sourced from Ras Laffan storage, limited production from LNG trains operating at reduced capacity, and cargoes from ADNOC's Das Island facility.
Production Recovery Trajectory and the Barzan Explosion
QatarEnergy has indicated that once safe passage through Hormuz is restored, production could ramp to 50 percent capacity within one month and 80 percent within two months, with the two trains damaged in March expected to take years to fully recover. That recovery timeline provides a quantified framework for market participants assessing how quickly Qatari LNG supply can normalise, though it is now complicated by a significant new development. Qatar's Ministry of Interior has reported an internal explosion at the Barzan gas plant in Ras Laffan Industrial City, part of Qatar's LNG production infrastructure, leaving at least 54 people injured and 18 missing. QatarEnergy has confirmed the incident and stated that the fire caused by the explosion has been brought under control, but the impact on LNG production remains unclear. The Barzan explosion introduces a further layer of uncertainty into the Gulf LNG supply outlook at precisely the moment when market participants were beginning to price in a recovery path, and the combination of lingering Hormuz security concerns and fresh infrastructure damage means that the return to normalised trade flows is likely to be more extended and more volatile than the initial resumption of vessel movements might suggest.
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This article was contributed by an external writer affiliated with our publication.
