Suez Canal Box Ship Transits Recover as Analysts Suggest Full Return in Early 2027

Container ship transits through the Suez Canal have recovered significantly from their post-disruption lows, with analysts expecting a full return to the route early next year. Weekly container ship capacity transiting the canal averaged 753,000 TEU during the first two weeks of October, exceeding half of pre-disruption levels for the first time since the Red Sea attacks began. Analysts suggest a full-scale return could be expected by the first quarter of 2027.

 

Details of the Recovery

 

Transits have recovered strongly. They rose from post-disruption lows. Weekly capacity averaged 753,000 TEU. This covered early October. It marks a turning point.

The recovery crossed a threshold. It exceeded half of pre-disruption levels. This was a first. It followed the Red Sea attacks. Analysts noted the milestone.

 

The Transit Data

 

Recent counts show rising activity. One brokerage counted 72 ships. This covered the past week. It exceeded prior averages. These stood near 57.

The data reflects a steady climb. Capacity remains below 2023. That year saw far more. The gap is narrowing. Momentum is building.

 

The Disruption Background

 

The disruption began in late 2023. Houthi attacks targeted shipping. These started with Israeli ships. Criteria later broadened. Safety became uncertain.

The impact was severe. Capacity fell sharply. It reached 330,000 TEU weekly. It averaged far lower after. This lasted into 2026.

 

Read More: https://oceaneconomist.com/articles/tsakos-hengli-container-newbuilding

 

The Carrier Returns

 

Carriers are returning to the route. One alliance led the shift. It restored a key service. This marked a turning point. More services followed.

Other carriers have joined. Several alliances changed routings. MSC also returned services. Many services are affected. More are expected to switch.

 

The Forecast Outlook

 

Analysts expect a full return. This could come by early 2027. Large ships would increase. These approach 50 weekly transits. Carriers keep switching.

A few carriers remain cautious. Some are yet to return. Others will switch next. This narrows the holdouts. The trend points to recovery.

 

Significance of the Recovery

 

The recovery affects global demand. Rerouting raised demand sharply. This is now reducing. Capacity is returning. The effect is unwinding.

The recovery brings new pressures. Asian congestion has risen. This complicates the picture. The full effect is unclear. Supply and demand are shifting.