VLCC Newbuilding Orders Surge Tenfold Toward Record-Breaking Year

VLCC newbuilding orders are on course for a record year, with shipowners placing 183 orders in the first half of 2026 compared with just 18 in the same period last year. According to Veson Nautical, this represents by far the highest half-year volume of very large crude carrier orders recorded in recent history. The surge reflects growing investor confidence, rising asset values and tightening vessel supply, though the resulting orderbook could eventually weigh on tanker rates as new tonnage enters the market.

 

Scale of the Ordering Surge

 

The volume of new orders marks a dramatic increase over the previous year. Shipowners placed orders for 183 very large crude carriers during the first half of 2026. This compares with just 18 orders during the same period a year earlier. Veson Nautical described this as by far the highest half-year volume recorded in recent history. The scale of the increase points to a fundamental shift in owner sentiment.

The surge has been driven in large part by a wave of confidence sweeping the sector. This same confidence propelled Sinokor and other Korean and Greek owners into the secondhand market earlier in the year. Owner investment decisions have been supported by charterers willing to take positions on forward deliveries. This willingness stems from the strength of current time charter rates. Together these factors have underpinned the rush toward new orders.

 

Rising Asset Values

 

Asset values across the sector have climbed sharply during the period. A newbuild very large crude carrier is currently priced at around 132 million dollars. Resale deals, by contrast, are commanding approximately 172 million dollars. This premium on resale tonnage reflects the strong demand for vessels available sooner. The gap illustrates how eager owners are to secure capacity quickly.

The value increases have been broad-based across the fleet. Values across all age segments have risen by up to 40 percent between January and June this year. Assets aged 10 to 15 years recorded the strongest gains during this period. Current asset values are approaching levels last seen during the 2008 supercycle. This comparison underscores the exceptional strength of the current market.

 

Drivers Behind the Boom

 

Several structural factors have combined to fuel the ordering surge. The aggressive Sinokor-MSC expansion strategy has been a key driver behind the market's strength. Their acquisition spree has absorbed available tonnage and tightened vessel supply. This scarcity of available ships has pushed more owners toward newbuildings. The resulting competition for tonnage has reinforced upward pressure on values.

Wider geopolitical and trade dynamics have also played a significant role. Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have added to market uncertainty. The emergence of the United States as a major crude export hub has supported higher tonne-mile demand. The continued growth of the sanctioned fleet has acted as a further supply constraint. Strengthening overall supply and demand fundamentals have compounded these effects.

 

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Shift Toward Newbuildings

 

Owners are increasingly favouring newbuildings to secure future fleet growth. This preference persists despite the long lead times involved at shipyards. Rising secondhand values have made existing tonnage more expensive to acquire. At the same time, available tonnage has become increasingly difficult to source. These conditions have made new orders a more attractive route to expansion.

The willingness to accept delivery delays reflects confidence in the sector's outlook. Owners are prepared to wait for new vessels rather than compete for scarce existing ships. Charterers' readiness to commit to forward deliveries has supported this approach. This alignment between owners and charterers has enabled the ordering surge. It demonstrates a shared confidence in the market's medium-term fundamentals.

 

Implications for the Market

 

The ordering wave has significantly reshaped the sector's orderbook. These sizeable contracts have pushed the orderbook-to-fleet ratio to around 33 percent. This compares with just 12 percent a year earlier, marking a substantial increase. The ratio reflects the volume of new tonnage now committed relative to the existing fleet. Such a rapid expansion of the orderbook is notable in itself.

This pipeline of new vessels carries longer-term consequences for the market. The new tonnage will enter service over the coming years as deliveries are completed. Veson Nautical identified this as the most significant headwind on the horizon for tanker rates. A large influx of capacity can weigh on rates by expanding available supply. This dynamic represents a potential counterbalance to the current market strength.