$125 Billion in Cargo Trapped Behind Strait of Hormuz as 1,150 Ships Remain Stranded in Persian Gulf

A new report by Allianz Commercial estimates that cargoes valued at approximately US$125 billion remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, with around 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite a US-Iran peace agreement, as commercial traffic remains well below the pre-war rate of up to 140 ship passages per day. The scale of the disruption has prompted the IMO and the Sultanate of Oman to devise a phased evacuation framework to enable the safe passage of approximately 11,000 seafarers who have been trapped in the Gulf for months.

 

Scale of the Disruption and Insurance Landscape

 

The Allianz Commercial report provides the most comprehensive quantification to date of the economic cost of the Hormuz closure in terms of stranded cargo value and vessel count. The 1,150 trapped vessels carry goods across commodity categories that underpin global industrial supply chains, and the US$125 billion cargo valuation reflects the cumulative effect of months of disrupted flows through one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Marine insurance cover has remained available throughout the conflict, though at significantly increased hull and cargo premiums that reflect the elevated risk environment. Allianz has noted that the more significant issue for shipowners has been the risk to crew and vessel from transiting a conflict zone rather than the pure availability of insurance coverage, a distinction that reframes the commercial calculus facing owners as primarily a safety and operational question rather than an insurance one.

 

Read more: IMCA Warns of Diver Safety Risks as Hormuz Reopening Triggers 30-Fold Surge in Hull Cleaning Demand

 

IMO and Oman Evacuation Framework

 

The development of a phased evacuation framework by the IMO in collaboration with the Sultanate of Oman represents a significant multilateral response to the humanitarian dimension of the crisis, which has left approximately 11,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf for extended periods in conditions of uncertainty and potential danger. The framework establishes temporary safe corridors designed to allow the orderly movement of vessels and crew through the strait in a controlled sequence that manages the risks associated with transiting a conflict zone. The involvement of Oman as a co-architect of the framework reflects the country's established role as a neutral intermediary in Gulf regional affairs, and its geographic position at the entrance to the strait gives it both the strategic relevance and the practical capability to support a managed evacuation process. The successful implementation of the framework will be a critical test of multilateral maritime governance under crisis conditions.

 

Systemic Vulnerability and the Chokepoint Risk Premium

 

Allianz Commercial chief executive Thomas Lillelund has framed the Hormuz closure within a broader pattern of severe shipping disruptions, describing the crisis as the latest in a series of interruptions that have forced the industry to confront the tension between resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency in an increasingly unpredictable world. The cost of that uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry across multiple dimensions, from route planning and vessel deployment to insurance structuring, charterer contract terms, and the strategic location of inventory buffers. The Hormuz closure follows the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea and the earlier disruptions to the Panama Canal from drought conditions, collectively demonstrating that the global shipping network's dependence on a small number of critical chokepoints creates systemic vulnerability that cannot be fully hedged through conventional risk management tools. For cargo owners, insurers, and shipowners, the accumulation of these disruptions is accelerating investment in supply chain diversification, alternative routing capability, and the geopolitical intelligence capacity needed to anticipate and respond to future chokepoint crises before they escalate to the scale witnessed in the Persian Gulf.