Installation Vessel Fleet Faces Challenge Meeting Offshore Wind Targets

A study by Germany's Kuehne Climate Center suggests existing and ordered wind turbine installation vessels could install an additional 320 GW of offshore wind by 2030, but only if market conditions align and significant challenges are overcome. The study finds the Chinese fleet could install around 225 GW, while the rest of the world could reach 175 GW with sufficient investment of up to 4 billion euros. Turbine growth, long vessel lead times and shipyard capacity all pose risks to meeting ambitious targets.

 

The Central Finding

 

A new study addresses a long-standing concern. Many have questioned whether enough installation vessels exist. These are needed to meet offshore wind targets. The Kuehne Climate Center study examines this issue. It offers a cautiously optimistic assessment.

The findings suggest the targets are achievable. Existing and ordered vessels could install 320 GW more by 2030. This would drive global capacity to 400 GW. However, this depends on conditions aligning. Significant challenges must also be overcome.

 

The Regional Split

 

The study divides capacity between regions. The Chinese fleet could install around 225 GW by 2030. This represents the bulk of the potential. The rest of the world could add 175 GW. This would be led by European contractors.

The rest-of-world figure depends on investment. Achieving 175 GW requires significant investment. This ranges from 2.5 to 4 billion euros. Without this, the figure could be lower. It might reach only around 140 GW by 2030.

 

The Turbine Growth Challenge

 

Growing turbine size complicates installation. Offshore turbines have grown significantly larger. This trend is expected to continue. Larger turbines offer greater energy production. However, their components are heavier and harder to handle.

This particularly affects certain vessels. Heavy-lift and installation vessels are most affected. Their cranes need greater lifting capacities. Their decks need more space and loadbearing capacity. Purpose-built installation vessels are especially sensitive to these changes.

 

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Shipbuilding Constraints

 

Vessel construction faces several bottlenecks. A limited number of shipyards build these vessels. There is a strong concentration in Asia. Most existing vessels came from Chinese shipyards. Only a few yards have international market experience.

Cost and lead times add further constraints. These vessels require significant investment. Larger vessels can cost up to 600 million dollars. Lead times can reach four or five years. Owners often order only once they have contracts.

 

Capacity and Crewing Concerns

 

Shipyard capacity remains a question. The study questions whether capacity will suffice. Shipyards delivered a record number of vessels in 2023. Most were built for China. Meeting future demand may strain capacity.

Crewing presents another challenge. These vessels need highly specialised crews. Finding crews for many new vessels seems unlikely. Recruiting and training them is a significant task. This adds to the challenges of scaling up.

 

Emerging Solutions and Policy

 

New concepts are emerging to help. These include new installation approaches. Feeder vessels could shuttle components to sites. This would keep installation vessels on site working. However, such models face weather and regulatory constraints.

The study also calls for better policy. It suggests targets should reflect supply chain capacity. Output targets must remain credible. They should be complemented by value chain targets. These should be informed by full supply chain assessments.