250-280 New LNG Carriers Needed by 2028 as Trade Recalibration Drives Long-Haul Shipping Demand
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Around 250 to 280 new LNG carriers will need to be ordered by 2028 to accommodate upcoming supply growth, as the global LNG trade undergoes a structural recalibration toward long-haul voyages that is boosting tonnage demand beyond what capacity growth alone would imply. Drewry Maritime Research lead LNG shipping analyst Pratiksha Negi has told Riviera that while the Middle East crisis may postpone part of the anticipated supply wave, the shift in trade dynamics toward long-haul movements increasingly outweighing intra-regional trade continues to support a favourable market environment for modern carriers through the end of the decade.
Trade Recalibration and the Long-Haul Structural Shift
The demand forecast is underpinned by a set of converging trade flow changes that are collectively increasing the average voyage distance of LNG cargoes and therefore the volume of shipping capacity required per tonne of liquefied gas moved. The rapid expansion of US liquefaction capacity is driving a sustained increase in US-to-Asia trade on some of the longest LNG routes in the world. Canada has secured long-term supply agreements with European and Asian buyers following the successful start-up of LNG Canada Phase 1, which has a capacity of 13 million tonnes per annum, adding a new Pacific Basin supply source. African cargoes are finding their way to Asian markets, Argentina is targeting Asian buyers, and importers across Asia are actively diversifying supply sources as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East threaten supply flexibility. Each of these developments extends the average tonne-mile content of the LNG trade and increases the number of vessels required to service a given volume of supply.
Supply Pipeline and North American Dominance
The scale of upcoming liquefaction capacity underpins the ordering requirement. Around 230 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity is currently under construction globally, with a further 300 million tonnes per annum in the planning phase. North America accounts for the bulk of new volumes, with the United States having 125 million tonnes per annum under construction and an additional 180 million tonnes per annum in the planning pipeline. Canada's contribution through LNG Canada and further planned expansions adds to the North American supply wave. Africa and South America are also expected to contribute meaningful new volumes, broadening the geographic diversity of supply that will require carrier capacity across multiple trade lanes. Negi has confirmed that approximately 54 LNG carrier orders were contracted during the first half of 2026, compared with 34 orders recorded during the whole of 2025, and that most vessels ordered this year have already secured long-term charter employment as charterers position for trade flows they expect to remain strategically indispensable in an increasingly volatile world.
Middle East Disruption and Qatari Delivery Delays
The Middle East crisis has introduced a complicating variable into the supply timeline without materially altering the structural demand outlook. Around eight Qatari-linked LNG carrier newbuildings originally scheduled to enter the fleet at the start of 2026 have already been postponed, and additional delays remain possible as uncertainty in the Middle East Gulf persists. The Barzan gas plant explosion at Ras Laffan has added a further layer of uncertainty to Qatari production recovery timelines, with QatarEnergy indicating that output could ramp to 50 percent within one month and 80 percent within two months of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz being restored, though the two trains damaged in March are expected to take years to fully recover. Negi has noted that these delays may shift part of the anticipated LNG supply wave to 2029 rather than eliminating it, effectively compressing the ordering window available to shipowners seeking to position modern tonnage ahead of the capacity build-out.
Fleet Renewal and Steam Vessel Retirement
In addition to new supply-driven demand, vessel requirements will also be shaped by replacement needs as scrutiny of older steam-turbine LNG carriers intensifies. Drewry estimates that the current fleet includes approximately 180 steam vessels, some of which may undergo conversion programmes while others are likely to be recycled. Negi estimates that around 60 LNG carriers could be scrapped by 2028 based on vessel age, charter expirations, and market conditions, with increased demolition activity providing additional support for demand for modern tonnage. The retirement of steam vessels from the active trading fleet not only reduces overall capacity but also removes assets that cannot meet the fuel efficiency and emissions standards increasingly required by charterers and regulators, accelerating the commercial case for replacing them with dual-fuel vessels that are compatible with the evolving regulatory environment under FuelEU Maritime and the EU Emissions Trading System.
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This article was contributed by an external writer affiliated with our publication.
