Wood Mackenzie Says US Stands to Benefit From LNG Supply Gap Created by Iran War

The US is well positioned to fill part of the LNG supply gap created by the Iran war, according to Wood Mackenzie, with almost 90 million tonnes of new US LNG capacity reaching final investment decisions in 2025 and 2026. The consultancy said the scale and speed of US LNG development could become increasingly important as the market loses confidence in Middle East supply. Damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan facility has removed 12.8 million tonnes of production capacity indefinitely, with repairs estimated to take up to five years.

 

The Central Assessment

 

A new analysis positions the US favourably. The consultancy is Wood Mackenzie. It cited the US filling a supply gap. This gap stems from the Iran war. US capacity is well placed to help.

The US has substantial new capacity. Nearly 90 million tonnes reached investment decisions. This spanned 2025 and 2026. More could come online soon. This positions the US strongly.

 

The Supply Gap

 

The gap stems from Middle East disruption. The Strait of Hormuz closure is central. This put a fifth of global supply at risk. Damage to Qatar's facility compounds this. It removed significant capacity indefinitely.

The market view has shifted. Gulf LNG is now seen as interruptible. A smooth return seems distant. Even a return could be constrained. This feeds market volatility.

 

The US Opportunity

 

The disruption benefits US supply. It has raised the value of reliable LNG. The US is well positioned for this. It can provide replacement volumes. Its 90 million tonnes support this.

The market may accept US reliance. This carries some risks. It concerns single-country exposure. Yet alternatives are scarce. Buyers may have little choice.

 

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The Qatar Damage

 

The Qatar damage adds complexity. Two trains were damaged early in the war. This was at Ras Laffan. Iranian strikes hit the facility. Force majeure was declared.

The impact is substantial. Damage could cost 20 billion dollars in lost revenue. Repairs could take up to five years. Specialist equipment causes delays. Turbine backlogs contribute to this.

 

The Shipping Dimension

 

The new capacity affects shipping. It arrives amid a newbuilding cycle. LNG carrier ordering has increased. This began in late 2025. It continued into 2026.

The ordering is substantial. Many carriers were contracted recently. A tank specialist has been bullish. It cited new projects needing carriers. This reflects strong shipping demand.

 

Significance of the Analysis

 

The analysis reflects a market shift. Confidence in Middle East supply has fallen. Reliable supply is more valued. The US benefits from this. It offers speed and flexibility.

The outlook points to more US LNG. Another wave may be inevitable. This spans brownfield and greenfield projects. It comes with risks. Yet the paucity of alternatives drives it.