NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season as El Niño Suppresses Storm Formation

US government scientists have forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, predicting eight to fourteen named tropical storms with one to three major hurricanes carrying sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour. The outlook, released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ahead of the June 1 season start, is driven primarily by a near-certain El Niño formation that is expected to generate strong upper-level winds across the southern United States, disrupting the atmospheric conditions that allow tropical storms to intensify.

 

Forecast Parameters and Probability Assessment

 

NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts eight to fourteen named tropical storms, from which three to six hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles per hour are likely to form. Within that range, one to three are expected to reach major hurricane status at the 111 miles-per-hour threshold. The agency has assigned a 55 percent probability that the season will produce fewer storms and hurricanes than historical averages, which between 1991 and 2020 produced seven hurricanes, including three major, from fourteen named storms. Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane season forecaster, noted that the last time the agency forecast a below-normal season was 2015, underscoring how infrequently these conditions align sufficiently to suppress Atlantic storm activity.

 

El Niño as the Primary Suppression Mechanism

 

The National Weather Service places a 98 percent probability on El Niño forming during the 2026 tropical season, making it the dominant factor shaping the forecast. El Niño events strengthen wind shear across the southern United States and the tropical Atlantic, creating atmospheric conditions that tear apart developing storm systems before they can organise into sustained tropical cyclones. The formation of a strong El Niño during the August-to-October peak of the hurricane season is expected to limit storm development most significantly during the period when climatologically the highest proportion of intense hurricanes form. The alignment of NOAA's outlook with academic and private forecasting models strengthens the overall credibility of the below-normal assessment.

 

Preparedness Warnings Despite Below-Normal Forecast

 

National Weather Service director Ken Graham has explicitly cautioned against interpreting the below-normal forecast as a reason to reduce preparedness. His statement that it only takes one reflects the operational reality that even a single intense hurricane can cause catastrophic damage regardless of total seasonal storm counts. Graham has advised coastal residents along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts to stock non-perishable food, medicines, and emergency supplies including radios and flashlights. The preparedness emphasis is particularly relevant given that below-normal seasons have historically included significant landfalling storms, and that the forecast range still encompasses the possibility of multiple major hurricanes.

 

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Implications for Coastal and Maritime Industries

 

A below-normal hurricane season forecast has tangible implications for the range of ocean economy sectors most exposed to tropical storm activity. Offshore energy operators in the Gulf of Mexico, which is one of the world's most important offshore oil and gas production regions, typically implement pre-season preparation protocols and manage field evacuation procedures based on seasonal outlook data. Port authorities along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, cruise lines operating in Caribbean waters, fishing fleets, and coastal property insurers all calibrate operational and financial planning against seasonal hurricane probability. A below-normal forecast reduces but does not eliminate the exposure these sectors face, and the probability of at least one significant storm remains material.

 

Climate Context and Long-Term Hurricane Trends

 

The 2026 below-normal forecast sits within a longer-term context of increasing hurricane intensity linked to ocean warming. While El Niño conditions suppress storm frequency in the near term, the background state of elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures has been associated with more rapid intensification of individual storms when they do develop. The 2023 and 2024 seasons produced above-normal activity, and the 2025 season was also above average, making 2026 an exception to a recent trend of heightened activity. Climate scientists have noted that the relationship between El Niño, sea surface temperature, and hurricane intensity is complex, and that below-normal frequency does not preclude above-normal intensity in individual storm events.

 

Outlook for the 2026 Season

 

NOAA's forecast will be updated as the season progresses, with revised outlooks typically issued in August when seasonal conditions are better established. The El Niño signal is expected to strengthen through the critical August-to-October window, and if the upper-level wind patterns develop as forecast, storm development is likely to remain suppressed during the peak of the season. For coastal communities, emergency managers, and ocean economy stakeholders, the principal planning implication is that a below-normal season reduces the statistical probability of major hurricane impacts without eliminating the need for sustained readiness. The fundamental uncertainty of tropical meteorology means that even a historically quiet season can produce consequential events that justify continued investment in preparedness and resilience.